Introduction
In this ever evolving and highly competitive landscape of football, every single detail counts. Sure we will never totally erase factors like “luck” or “chance” from this game, ultimately that’s what makes it a game and not a math test. But who leaves less room to “luck” will increase their chance to get ahead.
With this analysis we tried to uncover what 100 metrics can tell us about Brazil Serie A, Brazil Serie B… and a shocking contrast with the Portuguese League.
Read along to find out.
Série A 2023
Metrics that Most Contribute to a good Position
- Passes to the Final Third - 57.5%
- Through Passes - 56.8%
- Total Passes - 54.1%
- Touches in the Box - 53.9%
The numbers indicate a natural importance of "Dominating the Final Third" and having quality in ball possession.
Ranking Top 4 of the Teams with the Most Successful Passes in the Final Third (As of 07-29-2024):
Metrics that Most Contribute to a poor Position
- Possession Losses in Own Half - 58.4%
- Goalkeeper Exits - 45.55%
- Distance of Dribbles from Opponent's Goal - 32.83%
After possession losses in one's own half and goalkeeper interventions, the metric that stands out the most is the distance of dribbles from the opponent's goal.
Teams that tend to dribble far from the opponent's goal tend to achieve poorer Positions.
This can have various explanations, such as the risk taken so far from the opponent's goal, which, in case of failure can put the team in imbalance. Another explanation could be the possible difficulty in executing the build-up phase, having to resort to dribbling in earlier zones.
Ranking of Teams with the most own half possession losses, Teams with the most losses at the bottom of the Ranking (As of 07-29-2024):
Ranking of Teams with the most dribble attempts in the First Third (As of 07-29-2024):
Série B 2023
The differences between Serie A and Serie B are not significant, both leagues are quite unpredictable and highly competitive, and they share many similarities in both positive and negative metrics. Very few metrics exceed a 60% correlation with either top or bottom table positions. We will highlight some of the main differences.
"Presence in the Box"
- Touches in the Box - Percentage: 63.47% (Serie A 53.9%)
This metric is even more important in Serie B, with almost 10% more than in Serie A. Presence in the box is crucial for achieving a good ranking in Serie B.
- Crosses - 48.95% (Serie A 12.81%)
Here, the relevance of this metric in Serie B is even more evident when compared to Serie A, where it is only 12.81%.
- xG Shots Against - 61.20% (Serie A 49.86%)
- xG Shots (For) - 62.53% (Serie A 49.85%)
It is clear that this metric is much more relevant in Serie B than in Serie A, possibly pointing to greater defensive weaknesses in Serie B.
Both this metric and those of touches in the box and crosses suggest that there is greater defensive fragility and that "Presence in the Box" can end up making a difference in Serie B.
Ranking of Teams that allowed the most shots against, Teams with the most shots against at the bottom of the Ranking (As of 07-21-2024):
Série A Brazil vs Portuguese League
Comparative Analysis
- Passes ending in Final Third:
- Portuguese League: 91.73%
- Série A Brazil: 57.51%
- This metric has a much stronger correlation with the final position in the Portuguese League.
- Goals:
- Portuguese League: 91.51%
- Série A Brazil: 75.39%
- Goals are more predictive of the final position in the Portuguese League.
- Shots:
- Portuguese League: 89.85%
- Série A Brazil: 48.61%
- Shots are significantly more predictive in the Portuguese League.
- Touches in the box:
- Portuguese League: 89.73%
- Série A Brazil: 53.89%
- Touches in the box have a much stronger correlation in the Portuguese League.
It is abundantly clear that the Portuguese League is much more predictable than the Brazilian Championship. This was something we already had an idea about, but these numbers leave no room for doubt, the Brazilian Championship is by far more competitive than the Portuguese League.
As we can see in the following charts, both in Positive and Negative metrics, in Brazil, very few have a correlation higher than 75% with either a good or poor position. In contrast, in Portugal, several metrics achieve a correlation above 75%. Indicating a clear signal of a much more competitive League in Brazil.
- Dark Green: Number of metrics above 75% relevance for a good Position
- Medium Green: Number of metrics between 35% and 75% relevance for a good Position
- Light Green: Number of metrics between 0% and 35% relevance for a good Position
- Dark Red: Number of metrics above 75% relevance for a poor Position
- Medium Red: Number of metrics between 35% and 75% relevance for a poor Position
- Light Red: Number of metrics between 0% and 35% relevance for a poor Position
MyGamePlan
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We would be delighted to schedule a meeting with your club to explain how our platform works, which has already gained the trust of clubs like Bayer Leverkusen, KRC Genk, and others. We would be more than happy to work with your club as well.
