We analyzed data from 100 metrics and their correlation with the final league position between 2019 and 2024.
Let's start by highlighting some of the metrics that most influenced a good Position in the League.
Positive Metrics:
Highlight 1: The importance of quality in ball possession, noting that there are 20 metrics with a stronger correlation to good positioning than the "Ball Possession" metric, and almost all of them are related to the quality and efficiency of that possession, especially in the final third.
Dominating the final third is therefore crucial to achieving a good position in the top tier of Portuguese football.
To achieve a top-table finish, good performance in these metrics is essential:
- Passes to the final third: 91.73%
- Touches in the box: 89.73%
- Passes: 89.18%
- Vertical passes: 88.96%
- Lateral passes: 88.95%
- Backward passes: 88.20%
- Successful passes in final third: 82%
Here are some examples from last season:
Ranking of Final Third Domination (Successful Passes in the Final Third)
Total Passes Ranking
Highlight 2: The metric of ball recoveries in the opponent's half also has a strong correlation with a good ranking in the Primeira Liga:
- Ball recoveries in the opponent's half: 83.99%
- Duels won: 80.20%
Let's look at an example from last season:
Ranking of Ball Recoveries in the Opponent's Half
Before proceeding, we want to note Arouca, which performed very well in all three highlighted positive metrics, supporting their good performance in the league and the subsequent "promotion" of their coach to SC Braga.
Negative Metrics:
Highlight 1: Metrics strongly correlated with lower table positions include allowed passes in the final third, which give opponents too much time and space to create goal opportunities, and possession losses in one's own half, which can create dangerous imbalances:
- Allowed passes in the final third: 87.7%
- Possession losses in own half: 82.64%
- Long goal kicks: 77.03%
Let's also look at some rankings from last season:
Ranking of Allowed Passes in the Final Third (Teams allowing the most passes are at the bottom)
Ranking of Possession Losses in Own Half (Teams with the most possession losses are at the bottom)
Another metric strongly correlated with lower table positions is long goal kicks, which have a higher failure rate and indicate difficulties in building from the back:
Ranking of Long Goal Kicks (Teams with the most long goal kicks)
Analysis of the Segunda Liga:
To understand the main differences, we also analyzed the Segunda Liga. The findings are significant.
In the Segunda Liga, except for the expected metrics of Goals, Points, and Wins, no metric reaches more than 70% relevance for either top or bottom table positions, indicating much greater unpredictability and "competitiveness".
Here are some charts illustrating this:
Positive Metrics:
- Dark Green: Number of metrics above 75% relevance for a good ranking
- Intermediate Green: Number of metrics between 35% and 75% relevance for a good ranking
- Light Green: Number of metrics between 0% and 35% relevance for a good ranking
- Dark Red: Number of metrics above 75% relevance for a poor ranking
- Intermediate Red: Number of metrics between 35% and 75% relevance for a poor ranking
- Light Red: Number of metrics between 0% and 35% relevance for a poor ranking
Let's provide some examples showing the drastic decrease in correlation even for metrics at the top of both tables, highlighting the greater unpredictability of the Segunda Liga.
Goals:
- Primeira Liga: 91.51%
- Segunda Liga: 83.1%
- Goals are more predictive of the final position in the Primeira Liga.
Shots:
- Primeira Liga: 89.85%
- Segunda Liga: 52.64%
- Shots are significantly more predictive in the Primeira Liga.
Touches in the Box:
- Primeira Liga: 89.73%
- Segunda Liga: 53.31%
- Touches in the box have a much stronger correlation in the Primeira Liga.
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